By the Numbers
The MBS servicers that pounce on refi opportunities
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Prepayment speeds in October posted the fastest pace since April 2022. One possible reason could be increased servicer efficiency. Companies like United Shore tout the benefits of technology and artificial intelligence, which may shorten the time and reduce the manpower needed to refinance a loan. Santander’s monthly servicer prepayment report differentiates fast and slow servicers. Comparing the monthly ranking for servicers in October to prior months highlights several servicers whose influence on prepayments increased substantially in October.
Servicers like United Shore, Provident, Nexus Nova, and Movement Mortgage had a larger influence on prepayment speeds of in-the-money loans in October compared to September (Exhibit 1). A positive number on the x-axis indicates a servicer whose loans, after controlling for collateral characteristics like loan size, prepaid faster than the typical servicer in September. The y-axis is the same metric, but for October. The regression line has an adjusted R2 of 0.74, suggesting a strong relationship between behavior in September and October for many servicers. A few names of interest are labeled; complete data is included in the appendix.
Exhibit 1. Comparing servicers prepayments in October to September
Conventional 30-year loans. Only loans with positive rate incentive are included. The “Score” is the % fast(slower) a servicer’s loans prepaid compared to similar loans with the typical servicer. Not all names are labeled due to space constraints. Includes the 43 largest servicers plus one point that represents all the smaller servicers.
Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Santander US Capital Markets.
Rocket, known for its fast prepayment speeds, had a comparable effect in September and October—a little more than 60% in each month. This placed it slightly below the regression line. The market is also concerned by Nationstar servicing, which was acquired by Rocket. It showed little change from September to October, remaining near neutral.
United Shore’s retained servicing, on the other hand, jumped to 63.5% faster in October from 16.1% faster in September. The servicing it has sold to Nationstar also increased, to 29.4% from 12.1%. These suggest, especially since Nationstar’s own servicing was unchanged, that United Shore was more capable of reacting to lower rates than many other lenders. Several other servicers had similar increases.
It is also helpful to compare to October 2024, the last large refinance event (Exhibit 2). The servicers that had strong prepayments compared to September were also strong compared to last October. The adjusted R2 is 0.66, not quite as strong as the prior comparison.
Exhibit 2. Comparing servicers prepayments in October 2025 to October 2024
Conventional 30-year loans. Only loans with positive rate incentive are included. The “Score” is the % fast(slower) a servicer’s loans prepaid compared to similar loans with the typical servicer. Not all names are labeled due to space constraints. Includes the 43 largest servicers plus one point that represents all the smaller servicers.
Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Santander US Capital Markets.
The slope is 0.82, indicating that in general the servicer was more influential in October 2024 than October 2025. For example, Rocket—which is close to the regression line—was 78.8% faster in October 2024 vs. 64.4% faster in October 2025.
It looks like a handful of the largest servicers, most notably United Shore, may have played an outsized role in the fast prepayment speeds in October 2025. However, measures of refinancing activity published by the MBA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suggest that refinance activity is already waning, despite mortgage rates that, since mid-October, have been near or below the September low. There is a chance these servicer scores could revert to pre-October levels in the coming months. But investors should be aware that certain servicers’ loans may repeat this strong prepayment response the next time mortgage rates drop.
Appendix
Exhibit 3. Data for Exhibit 1
Conventional 30-year loans. Only loans with positive rate incentive are included. The “Score” is the % fast(slower) a servicer’s loans prepaid compared to similar loans with the typical servicer.
Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Santander US Capital Markets.
Exhibit 4. Data for Exhibit 2
Conventional 30-year loans. Only loans with positive rate incentive are included. The “Score” is the % fast(slower) a servicer’s loans prepaid compared to similar loans with the typical servicer.
Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Santander US Capital Markets.
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