The Long and Short
Pick seasoned 20-year corporates for relative value
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.
Corporate investors’ demand for duration has flattened much of the investment grade spread curve beyond the 10-year point. The net result has been in a window of opportunity in seasoned 20-year paper, which is currently demonstrating the most relative value. This is particularly true for utilities, where emphasis on “on-the-run” securities has created favorable market technicals in some of the more seasoned 20-year issues while spreads remain more rangebound in the tighter, more liquid securities.
Already in September, over $200 billion in new issue has been priced in the investment grade market, setting a new monthly record and one of the highest single months ever. Month-to-date issuance indicates an uptick in 30-year and longer issuance at 14% compared to 11% for the rest of the year. Comparatively, there have only been a few notable new issues in the 20-year tenor. Two of these similarly-rated for issues worth highlighting in September:
- AT&T’s (T: Baa2/BBB/BBB+*-) jumbo $5 billion 4-part debt deal on September 18, which included a new 20-year note that priced $1.1 billion at a spread of 87.5 bp over the Treasury curve. That compared to a spread of 100 bp for the new long-bond and 82 bp for the new 10-year note in the same launch.
- Oracle’s (ORCL: Baa2/BBB/BBB) jumbo $18 billion 7-part deal on September 24, which included a new 20-year note that priced at a spread of 115 bp over the Treasury curve. That compared to a spread of 125 bp for the new 30-year bond and 105 bp for the new 10-year note in the same launch.
In both instances, the primary market upheld the very tight trading ranges for available spread pick in ‘BBB’ 10s/20s of 5 bp to 10 bp and 10 bp to 12 bp for 20s/30s. Investors get roughly 7 bp to move out from 10s to 20s on the ‘BBB’ curve, with only a 3 bp slope from 20s to 30s, the latter of which is more indicative of the very flat curve dynamics for 20- and 30-year credit in the secondary market.
Exhibit 1: The spread curve for ‘BBB’ (blue), ‘A’ (red) and ‘AA’ (purple)

Source: Bloomberg LP
For ‘BBB’ utilities, investors receive 10 bp of additional spread for moving out from 10s to 20s, which also represents the peak of the credit spread curve at 109 bp (Exhibit 2). Meanwhile, fair value for 30-year ‘BBB’ utilities is 3 bp tighter at 106 bp. ‘A’ credit is visibly flatter with an 8 bp pick to move from 10s to 20s, and more typical 4 bp slope between 20s and 30s.
Exhibit 2: Spread curves for investment grade ‘BBB’ (blue) and ‘A’ (red) utilities

Source: Bloomberg LP
Investors can target ‘BBB’ 20-year utility paper where G-spreads reflect flat-to-negative spread picks available between the 20 and 30-year issues outstanding in the secondary market to help identify undervalued securities (Exhibit 3). Meanwhile, outside of the ‘BBB’ arena, there are also some compelling relationships in higher-rated, first-mortgage utility paper as well, including the following examples (spread indications only):
- ES 4.15% ‘45s (A2/A/A+*-): Spd +79, G-spd +80
ES 5.25% ’53s (A2/A/A+*-): Spd +78, G-spd +78
- D 4.2 ‘45s (A3/BBB+/A): Spd +87, G-spd +89
D 5.65% ‘55s (A3/BBB+/A): Spd +89, G-spd +89
- XEL 4.30 ’44 (A1/A/A+): Spd +91, G-spd +99
XEL 5.85 ’55 (A1/A/A+): Spd +94, G+95
Exhibit 3: ‘BBB’ utilities 10-/20-/30-year relationships

Source: Bloomberg/TRACE YAS price indications only as of 9/25/25
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