By the Numbers

CLO Snapshot for April

| May 9, 2025

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.

A rough April left CLO returns lower and much more volatile than any other month in the last 12. ‘AAA’ debt still outperformed, at least based on return for risk taken. Wider spreads have cut refi risk, and loan portfolio credit still looks steady-to-stronger. As for managers, quality strategies topped the loan index and their peers again. And April still delivered healthy new CLO issuance and a rising balance of outstanding loans.

Highlights follow.

RETURNS AND RV

A rough Apr leaves CLOs with a mix of monthly gains and losses: ‘AAA’ up 30 bp, ‘AA’ up 31 bp, ‘A’ up 14 bp, ‘BBB’ down 41 bp and ‘B’ down 181 bp

Note: Returns through 4/30/25. Data shows current value as a percentage of starting value.
Source: Palmer Square, Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets

Apr reduces efficiency across every rating over the last 12 months, lowering average return and increasing volatility especially below ‘AAA’

Note: Based on returns 2/28/24-3/31/25.
Source: Palmer Square, Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets

All classes widen in Apr with outstanding CLO ‘AAA’ finishing out 10 bp, ‘AA’ out 7 bp, ‘A’ out 17 bp, ‘BBB’ out 36 bp and ‘BB’ out 76 bp

Note: Spreads to SOFR through 3/31/25 for the average class outstanding. May differ from new issue spreads.
Source: Palmer Square, Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets

Spreads end Apr at the wide end of the 1Y distribution but well below the median over longer horizons

Note: The widest percentile rank is 100, the median is 50 and the tightest is 0. Data show DM to SOFR.
Source: Palmer Square, Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets.

CLOs widen modestly to corporates, ending at the wide end of a narrow 1Y range but still well below the median over longer horizons

Source: ICE BofA Corporate Indices, Santander US Capital Markets.

Median new issue spreads finish wider again in Apr by 14 bp in ‘AAA’, 32 bp in ‘AA’, 40 bp in ‘A’, 65 bp in ‘BBB’ and 175 bp in ‘BBB’

Note: based on 12-14 deal observations. Month-to-month changes in spreads may reflect a changing mix of managers and deal structure.
Source: Santander US Capital Markets.

Secondary BSL spreads end Apr with little concession to Apr median BSL new issue DMs

Note: NI DMs reflect markets throughout the month and can reflect deals priced weeks before, secondary DMs reflect markets at the end of the month. Spreads do not afford a same-point-in-time comparison.
Source: Santander US Capital Markets

Median new issue middle market spreads widen on limited volume

Note: based on 1-3 deal observations. Month-to-month changes in spreads may reflect a changing mix of managers and structures.
Source: Palmer Square, Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets.

New middle market CLOs widen sharply to BSL, especially in lower rated classes

Source: Santander US Capital Markets.

REFI AND CREDIT RISK

Refi risk falls: Of 228 CLOs with six months or less to the first call date, the share with margins at or above the NI ‘AAA’ spread drops from 72% to 64%

Source: Santander US Capital Markets.

Credit: The median deal junior OC cushion rises Mar-to-Apr by 2 bp while the 10th ptile falls 7 bp and the 90th ptile falls 1 bp

Source: INTEX, Santander US Capital Markets.

Credit: Despite wider debt spreads, median portfolio loan spreads in Apr edge tighter by 1 bp, the 10th ptile by 3 bp, the 90th ptile flat

Source: INTEX, Santander US Capital Markets.

Credit: Distribution of WARF across deals drops again Mar-to-Apr: the median by 1 point, 10th ptile by 6 points, the 90th ptile by 20 points

Source: INTEX, Santander US Capital Markets.

Credit: Diversity scores run Mar-to-Apr unchanged

Source: INTEX, Santander US Capital Markets.

The weighted average life of loans in Apr edges lower by 0.01 to 0.02 years after rising slowly for months

Source: INTEX, Santander US Capital Markets.

MANAGER PERFORMANCE

Quality portfolios beat the risk-adjusted return on the Morningstar/LSTA loan index by 14 bp through Apr and speculative peers by 15 bp

Note: Performance for the three monthly reporting dates before Apr 20, 2025, for managers with five or more deals issued since January 1, 2011, and tracked by Santander US Capital Markets. Performance attribution starts with calculated total return on the leveraged loan portfolio held in each CLO for the 3-month reporting period ending on the indicated date. CLOs, even with a single manager platform, may vary in reporting period. The analysis matches performance in each period to performance over the identical period in the Morningstar/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Where a deal has at least 18 months of performance history since pricing and no apparent errors in cash flow data, the analysis calculates a deal beta. The deal beta is multiplied by the index return to predict deal return attributable to broad market performance. Where no beta can be calculated, the analysis uses the average beta across manager deals weighted by the average deal principal balance over time.  Any difference between performance attributes to beta and actual performance is attributed to manager alpha.
Source: INTEX, Markit, Santander US Capital Markets LLC

Vibrant, Sixth Street, Steele Creek, Pretium and White Star lead the Top 25 producers of excess return for the three reporting periods ending in Apr

Note: See note for table above.
Source: INTEX, Santander US Capital Markets.

PRIMARY FLOWS

YTD issuance in BSL and MM keeps pace with 2024 while refi/reset stays ahead; wider debt should slow NI and refi/reset in coming months

Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets

LOAN MARKETS

Apr gross loan issuance comes in at $13B, off 73% from Feb

Source: PitchBook | LCD Leveraged Loan Data US, Santander US Capital Markets

Outstanding par balance of leveraged loan index still grows in Apr by $11B

Source: PitchBook | LCD US Leveraged Loan Index Factsheet, Santander US Capital Markets

Rolling 90-day yields on new ‘B’ loans rise Mar-to-Apr by 89 bp

Note: Data shows 90-day rolling yield.
Source: PitchBook | LCD, Santander US Capital Markets

Special thanks to Sophia Cui for key data analysis.

Steven Abrahams
steven.abrahams@santander.us
1 (646) 776-7864

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