By the Numbers

Mortgage delinquencies track consumer stress

| May 2, 2025

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.

Monthly mortgage delinquencies offer a check-up on the financial health of the wide range of households that finance their homes, especially since mortgage debt usually is the largest part of household debt service. News on the weakest households is concerning with nearly 10% of loans seriously delinquent, the highest rate outside of Covid and since the Global Financial Crisis. The strongest households look, well, strong. Renewed payment of student loans may have a hand in the latest stress.

The highlights of the current mortgage delinquency picture follow.

GOVERNMENT LOANS

Delinquencies in some FHA vintages—before seasonal slowdown—near 10% reflecting high LTV, weak household finances and likely student loan pay stress

Exhibit 1: FHA %D60+ ($1.4T outstanding)

Note: Deadline for restarting student loan payments without being considered delinquent, suspended since Covid, arrived Oct 1, 2024. Performance through April 2025.
Source: Ginnie Mae, Santander US Capital Markets

Rural housing borrowers likewise show signs of stress as delinquency rates are a little higher than FHA’s

Exhibit 2: Rural Housing %D60+ ($98B outstanding)

Note: Rural housing borrowers must have income below 115% of area median income. Performance through April 2025.
Source: Ginnie Mae, Santander US Capital Markets

VA borrowers, typically stronger credits, also show stress with post-Covid loan delinquencies up while earlier vintages with equity stay low

Exhibit 3: VA %D60+ ($1.0T outstanding)

Note: VA borrowers typically have stronger credit performance than FHA borrowers; these loans typically offer lower interest rates than conventional loans, which attracts borrowers that could qualify for a conventional loan. Performance through April 2025. Source: Ginnie Mae, Santander US Capital Markets

Conventional delinquencies edge up but remain well below government loans reflecting higher credit scores and larger down payments

Exhibit 4. Conventional %D60+ ($6.4T outstanding)

Performance through April 2025.
Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Santander US Capital Markets

Non-QM borrowers with low credit scores or with high LTVs are both underperforming other non-QM loans as discussed here

Exhibit 5: non-QM %D60+ ($103B outstanding)

Note: Non-QM borrowers typically do not qualify for agency underwriting. For example, a borrower might qualify using bank statements to document assets but not traditional income documentation like tax returns or paystubs. Performance through March 2025. Source: Cotality, Santander US Capital Markets

Prime jumbo delinquencies remain low, like conventional borrowers, with the 2022 vintage performing noticeably worse than others

Exhibit 6: Prime Jumbo %D60+ ($104B outstanding)

Performance through March 2025.
Source: Cotality, Santander US Capital Markets

Brian Landy, CFA
brian.landy@santander.us
1 (646) 776-7795

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