The Long and Short
The corporate market awaits an echo boom from 2020
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.
The Covid pandemic in 2020 led to a boom for US corporate bond issuers that looks set to echo in 2025. Low rates and new government backstops in 2020 helped drive new issuance to a record annual pace for investment grade debt. Five years later, investors and issuers alike are confronted with a massive maturity wall of extremely low-coupon 5-year debt coming due, among others. By examining the components of the upcoming debt maturities, corporate bond investors can anticipate new issue trends critical for managing portfolios and developing trading strategies in the months ahead.
Maturities by original tenor
For the remainder of 2025, nearly $401 billion in investment grade debt matures. It comes with an average coupon of 3.70%, and just under 25% of that amount—the largest share by tenor—reflects debt with an original 5-year tenor. That compares to a much smaller $224 billion of investment grade maturities in the last three quarters of 2024. Last year’s maturities had a lower average coupon of 3.31% and a comparable weighting of 5-year notes coming due of about 26%. In fact, maturities in the last three quarters of both 2024 and 2025 have roughly comparable mix of tenor (Exhibit 1). One clear difference is that 2025 maturities have a much higher percentage of 10 -year debt coming due at just under 35% compared to 27% for the prior year. Ultimately, market conditions and reverse inquiry will determine how issuers will choose to fund their upcoming maturities. But it’s worth noting that original tenor 10-year debt makes up a bigger component of the current maturity schedule than 2024.
Exhibit 1: A higher share of original 10-year tenors coming due in 2025
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg LP
Maturities by rating
Maturities in 2025 compared to 2024 by rating show a handful of notable differences. ‘High ‘BBB’ credit seems to have had the highest uptick in 2025 maturities from the prior year period at 15.4% versus 7.6%, while low ‘A’ credit at 16.2% sees the biggest drop-off from the prior year (Exhibit 2). However, both of those rating categories for 2025 are fairly closely in range with the current IG index. ‘BBB’ credit makes up approximately 42% of maturities for the remainder of 2025. That compares with just under 40% of ‘BBB’ maturities in the prior year period, and approximately 45% for IG index as it is currently comprised.
Exhibit 2: An uptick in share for ‘BBB+’ and ‘AA-‘ maturities in 2025
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg LP
Maturities by sector
When it comes to issuer sectors, more absolute debt comes due across all of them in 2025 but share is comparably dispersed with only one notable difference. The percentage of bonds coming due in the banking industry are materially lower in 2025 at 30% versus approximately 36% for the prior year period (Exhibit 3). Likely, the discrepancy could be a function of the amount of 6NC5 structured notes issued over the period in question, resulting in higher 2026 maturities for the sector. Still, it benefits investors to note that in general the banking industry has less funding needs on a percentage basis for the remainder of 2025 than it did for the prior year period even as the absolute levels are notably higher at $120.5 billion versus $80.7 billion in 2024.
Exhibit 3: More absolute debt but proportionately less banking debt due in 2025
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg LP
Maturities by issuer
Probably the most valuable information for portfolio managers planning their trading strategies for the next several months is acknowledging which issuers have the largest maturity profiles over the next several quarters (Exhibit 4). These issuers are more likely to tap the public debt markets if they have not pre-funded these maturities already. Serial benchmark issuers make up the largest components of both lists for 2025 and 2024, but there are some standouts worth noting, particularly in light of the current environment where tariff concerns are putting the most pressure on sectors and individual credits. An obvious standout for the remainder of 2025 are the automakers, and most specifically General Motors with nearly $7 billion in debt maturities over the next three quarters. GM tapped the US dollar market in early January and again in early March, raising a combined $4.75 billion.
Exhibit 4: Issuers with $3 billion or more maturing through the rest of 2025
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg LP
Then there’s the list of original 5-year tenor, Covid-era investment grade bonds coming due through the rest of 2025. The bonds are broken out by sector to provide investors with a checklist of segments of the market that sourced 5-year liquidity at the heights of the global pandemic and could be seeking to fund those maturities in the months ahead.
Exhibit 5. Complete List of 5-yr COVID-era Bonds Maturing in 2025 (by Sector)
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg LP
This material is intended only for institutional investors and does not carry all of the independence and disclosure standards of retail debt research reports. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This message, including any attachments or links contained herein, is subject to important disclaimers, conditions, and disclosures regarding Electronic Communications, which you can find at https://portfolio-strategy.apsec.com/sancap-disclaimers-and-disclosures.
Important Disclaimers
Copyright © 2025 Santander US Capital Markets LLC and its affiliates (“SCM”). All rights reserved. SCM is a member of FINRA and SIPC. This material is intended for limited distribution to institutions only and is not publicly available. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.
In making this material available, SCM (i) is not providing any advice to the recipient, including, without limitation, any advice as to investment, legal, accounting, tax and financial matters, (ii) is not acting as an advisor or fiduciary in respect of the recipient, (iii) is not making any predictions or projections and (iv) intends that any recipient to which SCM has provided this material is an “institutional investor” (as defined under applicable law and regulation, including FINRA Rule 4512 and that this material will not be disseminated, in whole or part, to any third party by the recipient.
The author of this material is an economist, desk strategist or trader. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM or any of its affiliates may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This material (i) has been prepared for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related investments or other financial instruments, (ii) is neither research, a “research report” as commonly understood under the securities laws and regulations promulgated thereunder nor the product of a research department, (iii) or parts thereof may have been obtained from various sources, the reliability of which has not been verified and cannot be guaranteed by SCM, (iv) should not be reproduced or disclosed to any other person, without SCM’s prior consent and (v) is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which its distribution would be prohibited.
In connection with this material, SCM (i) makes no representation or warranties as to the appropriateness or reliance for use in any transaction or as to the permissibility or legality of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction, (ii) believes the information in this material to be reliable, has not independently verified such information and makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy or completeness of such information, (iii) accepts no responsibility or liability as to any reliance placed, or investment decision made, on the basis of such information by the recipient and (iv) does not undertake, and disclaims any duty to undertake, to update or to revise the information contained in this material.
Unless otherwise stated, the views, opinions, forecasts, valuations, or estimates contained in this material are those solely of the author, as of the date of publication of this material, and are subject to change without notice. The recipient of this material should make an independent evaluation of this information and make such other investigations as the recipient considers necessary (including obtaining independent financial advice), before transacting in any financial market or instrument discussed in or related to this material.
Important disclaimers for clients in the EU and UK
This publication has been prepared by Trading Desk Strategists within the Sales and Trading functions of Santander US Capital Markets LLC (“SanCap”), the US registered broker-dealer of Santander Corporate & Investment Banking. This communication is distributed in the EEA by Banco Santander S.A., a credit institution registered in Spain and authorised and regulated by the Bank of Spain and the CNMV. Any EEA recipient of this communication that would like to affect any transaction in any security or issuer discussed herein should do so with Banco Santander S.A. or any of its affiliates (together “Santander”). This communication has been distributed in the UK by Banco Santander, S.A.’s London branch, authorised by the Bank of Spain and subject to regulatory oversight on certain matters by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).
The publication is intended for exclusive use for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by MiFID II and is not intended for use by retail customers or for any persons or entities in any jurisdictions or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This material is not a product of Santander´s Research Team and does not constitute independent investment research. This is a marketing communication and may contain ¨investment recommendations¨ as defined by the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014 ("MAR"). This publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The author, date and time of the production of this publication are as indicated herein.
This publication does not constitute investment advice and may not be relied upon to form an investment decision, nor should it be construed as any offer to sell or issue or invitation to purchase, acquire or subscribe for any instruments referred herein. The publication has been prepared in good faith and based on information Santander considers reliable as of the date of publication, but Santander does not guarantee or represent, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. All estimates, forecasts and opinions are current as at the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. Unless otherwise indicated, Santander does not intend to update this publication. The views and commentary in this publication may not be objective or independent of the interests of the Trading and Sales functions of Santander, who may be active participants in the markets, investments or strategies referred to herein and/or may receive compensation from investment banking and non-investment banking services from entities mentioned herein. Santander may trade as principal, make a market or hold positions in instruments (or related derivatives) and/or hold financial interest in entities discussed herein. Santander may provide market commentary or trading strategies to other clients or engage in transactions which may differ from views expressed herein. Santander may have acted upon the contents of this publication prior to you having received it.
This publication is intended for the exclusive use of the recipient and must not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without Santander’s consent. The recipient agrees to keep confidential at all times information contained herein.
