The Long and Short
Corporate Prospector
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.
Credit only moved marginally wider in March resulting in relatively flat returns for the month after US Treasury rates went roundtrip. CDX rolled to a new index, resulting in wider spreads, but selling in CDS markets still clearly outpaced cash spreads for the month. Mutual funds saw inflows until the last week of March and then saw first the first outflow since the start of the year. March new issue volume at $184 billion topped expectations and capped off a record first quarter. Meanwhile, fundamental credit trends remained stable throughout the quarter with credit upgrades moderately outpacing downgrades.
The highlights:
- Relative value: No changes through March in sector weightings
- Returns: Flat through March
- Spreads: CDX selling outpaced cash spreads, widest level since Dec 2023
- Flow of funds: Mutual funds saw inflows most of March but outflow to close
- Issuance: March beat estimates and helps set a first quarter record
- Volatility: VIX and MOVE stayed rangebound
- Credit trends: Upgrades outpaced downgrades through the first quarter
RELATIVE VALUE
Exhibit 1. There are no changes this month to the index sector weightings

Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index.
Color = recommendation: Green – stronger relative value, Red – weaker relative value, Yellow – neutral relative value. Size = Market Value within the IG Index
Exhibit 2. Month-end percentile ranking of OAS versus 5-year historical data by sector

Note: the blue bars represent percentile rank (LHS), the orange bars represent OAS (RHS).
Source: Bloomberg corporate bond indices, Santander US Capital Markets
TRAILING RETURNS
Exhibit 3. The index leaked just 6 bp wider in Mar while UST returns were flat

Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index
Exhibit 4. Transports lagged again, along with basics and fincos; Cap goods and banks and tech outperform

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
Exhibit 5. Flight-to-quality as lower rated credits underperform

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
Exhibit 6. Credit continued to sell off further out the curve

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
SPREADS
Exhibit 7. CDX selling outpaces cash spreads, widest level since Dec ‘23

Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index, CDX
Exhibit 8. IG index continues to creep further above a full std dev of the mean

Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index
FLOW OF FUNDS
Exhibit 9. Mutual fund flows remain pos throughout most of Mar, but post first neg since the first week of ‘25

Source: Bloomberg LP, Refinitiv/Lipper weekly flow data
ISSUANCE
Exhibit 10. Mar beats est, 1Q25 sets a new record for volume over 1Q24

Source: Bloomberg LP, LEAG Tables, some monthly rounding error applies
VOLATILITY
Exhibit 11. VIX and MOVE still rangebound as selloff muted relative to day-to-day market jitters

Source: Bloomberg LP, Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, ICE BofA MOVE Index
CREDIT TRENDS
Exhibit 12. Upgrades outpace downgrades

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Bloomberg LP
This material is intended only for institutional investors and does not carry all of the independence and disclosure standards of retail debt research reports. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This message, including any attachments or links contained herein, is subject to important disclaimers, conditions, and disclosures regarding Electronic Communications, which you can find at https://portfolio-strategy.apsec.com/sancap-disclaimers-and-disclosures.
Important Disclaimers
Copyright © 2025 Santander US Capital Markets LLC and its affiliates (“SCM”). All rights reserved. SCM is a member of FINRA and SIPC. This material is intended for limited distribution to institutions only and is not publicly available. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.
In making this material available, SCM (i) is not providing any advice to the recipient, including, without limitation, any advice as to investment, legal, accounting, tax and financial matters, (ii) is not acting as an advisor or fiduciary in respect of the recipient, (iii) is not making any predictions or projections and (iv) intends that any recipient to which SCM has provided this material is an “institutional investor” (as defined under applicable law and regulation, including FINRA Rule 4512 and that this material will not be disseminated, in whole or part, to any third party by the recipient.
The author of this material is an economist, desk strategist or trader. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM or any of its affiliates may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This material (i) has been prepared for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related investments or other financial instruments, (ii) is neither research, a “research report” as commonly understood under the securities laws and regulations promulgated thereunder nor the product of a research department, (iii) or parts thereof may have been obtained from various sources, the reliability of which has not been verified and cannot be guaranteed by SCM, (iv) should not be reproduced or disclosed to any other person, without SCM’s prior consent and (v) is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which its distribution would be prohibited.
In connection with this material, SCM (i) makes no representation or warranties as to the appropriateness or reliance for use in any transaction or as to the permissibility or legality of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction, (ii) believes the information in this material to be reliable, has not independently verified such information and makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy or completeness of such information, (iii) accepts no responsibility or liability as to any reliance placed, or investment decision made, on the basis of such information by the recipient and (iv) does not undertake, and disclaims any duty to undertake, to update or to revise the information contained in this material.
Unless otherwise stated, the views, opinions, forecasts, valuations, or estimates contained in this material are those solely of the author, as of the date of publication of this material, and are subject to change without notice. The recipient of this material should make an independent evaluation of this information and make such other investigations as the recipient considers necessary (including obtaining independent financial advice), before transacting in any financial market or instrument discussed in or related to this material.
Important disclaimers for clients in the EU and UK
This publication has been prepared by Trading Desk Strategists within the Sales and Trading functions of Santander US Capital Markets LLC (“SanCap”), the US registered broker-dealer of Santander Corporate & Investment Banking. This communication is distributed in the EEA by Banco Santander S.A., a credit institution registered in Spain and authorised and regulated by the Bank of Spain and the CNMV. Any EEA recipient of this communication that would like to affect any transaction in any security or issuer discussed herein should do so with Banco Santander S.A. or any of its affiliates (together “Santander”). This communication has been distributed in the UK by Banco Santander, S.A.’s London branch, authorised by the Bank of Spain and subject to regulatory oversight on certain matters by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).
The publication is intended for exclusive use for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by MiFID II and is not intended for use by retail customers or for any persons or entities in any jurisdictions or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This material is not a product of Santander´s Research Team and does not constitute independent investment research. This is a marketing communication and may contain ¨investment recommendations¨ as defined by the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014 ("MAR"). This publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The author, date and time of the production of this publication are as indicated herein.
This publication does not constitute investment advice and may not be relied upon to form an investment decision, nor should it be construed as any offer to sell or issue or invitation to purchase, acquire or subscribe for any instruments referred herein. The publication has been prepared in good faith and based on information Santander considers reliable as of the date of publication, but Santander does not guarantee or represent, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. All estimates, forecasts and opinions are current as at the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. Unless otherwise indicated, Santander does not intend to update this publication. The views and commentary in this publication may not be objective or independent of the interests of the Trading and Sales functions of Santander, who may be active participants in the markets, investments or strategies referred to herein and/or may receive compensation from investment banking and non-investment banking services from entities mentioned herein. Santander may trade as principal, make a market or hold positions in instruments (or related derivatives) and/or hold financial interest in entities discussed herein. Santander may provide market commentary or trading strategies to other clients or engage in transactions which may differ from views expressed herein. Santander may have acted upon the contents of this publication prior to you having received it.
This publication is intended for the exclusive use of the recipient and must not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without Santander’s consent. The recipient agrees to keep confidential at all times information contained herein.