The Long and Short

Corporate Prospector – January 2025

| January 8, 2025

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.

The investment grade corporate market delivered the third worst total returns of the year in December, as spreads went roundtrip to close flat and US Treasury rates rose for the month. Finance companies, capital goods and transports outperformed other sectors, and intermediate to long-end maturities delivered better excess returns. Flow of funds remained mostly positive to the end, and new issue supply closed 2024 with the second biggest year on record at $1.62 trillion.

Highlights:

  • Relative value: No changes to sector views for Jan
  • Returns: Third worst total return on UST selloff
  • Spreads: Spreads go roundtrip to close slightly wider in Dec
  • Flows: Mutual fund flows remain mostly positive except final week of Dec
  • Issuance: The year tops $1.62 trillion for second largest year on record
  • Volatility: MOVE spikes off local lows in Dec
  • Credit trends: Upgrades top downgrades throughout fourth quarter, full year

RELATIVE VALUE

Exhibit 1. No changes to sector weighting views according to percentile ranking analytic by sector

Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index.
Color = recommendation:
Green – stronger relative value, Red – weaker relative value, Yellow – neutral relative value. Size = Market Value within the IG Index

Exhibit 2. Month-end percentile ranking of current OAS versus five-year historical data by sector

Note: the blue bars represent percentile rank (LHS), the orange bars represent OAS (RHS).
Source: Bloomberg corporate bond indices, Santander US Capital Markets

TRAILING RETURNS

Exhibit 3. Flat credit performance in Dec as spreads go roundtrip, third worst total return on UST selloff

Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index

Exhibit 4. Fincos, capital goods and transports outperform; banking, insurance and consumer underperform in Dec

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index

Exhibit 5. “Barbell” credit posture in Dec

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index

Exhibit 6. Longer duration corps outperform in Dec, despite UST selloff

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index

SPREADS

Exhibit 7. Spreads go roundtrip to close slightly wider in Dec

Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index, CDX

Exhibit 8. IG spreads remain just below a full standard deviation of the mean

Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index

FLOW OF FUNDS

Exhibit 9. Mutual fund flows remain mostly positive except final week of Dec

Source: Bloomberg LP, Refinitiv/Lipper weekly flow data

ISSUANCE

Exhibit 10. 2024 new issue closes above $1.62 trillion for second largest year on record

Source: Bloomberg LP, LEAG Tables, some monthly rounding error applies

VOLATILITY

Exhibit 11. MOVE spikes off local lows as UST selling observed in Dec

Source: Bloomberg LP, Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, ICE BofA MOVE Index

CREDIT TRENDS

Exhibit 12. Upgrades outpaced downgrades throughout the fourth quarter, full year

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Bloomberg LP

Dan Bruzzo, CFA
dan.bruzzo@santander.us
1 (646) 776-7749

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