The Big Idea
Macro Picture – January 7, 2025
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.
- RATES: A bit of funding stress eases after the New Year
- LIQUIDITY: Treasury liquidity holds, Bunds erodes
- VOLATILITY: Rate vol nears multi-year lows
- SPREADS: Corporate credit softens, loans finish strong
- ENERGY: Oil rallies to end Dec, open Jan
- EQUITIES: Equity risk premium closes at extraordinary -8 bp
- FINANCIAL CONDITIONS: Higher rates leave conditions locally tighter
- FLOWS: Another record for money funds, Street sheets hit a 5Y high
RRP holds at 4.25%, SOFR sets Mon at 4.31% after spiking to end the year, fed funds hold at 4.33% and IORB at 4.40%
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
MBS repo spikes higher in late Dec, a sign of limited repo balance sheet, but eases to settle Fri at SOFR + 6.7 bp
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets
RRP closes 2024 at $473B—another sign of limited repo balance sheet—but drops by Mon to $232B
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
The Fed dots have persuaded the market through the end of 2025 but not beyond
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
To close Dec and open Jan, short rates fall to reflect the Fed as longer rates rise to reflect supply
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
The 2s10s and 5s30s curve both steepen to close Dec and open Jan
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Breakeven inflation cruises just above the Fed’s 2% target
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Real rates close Mon with 2Y at 2.00%, 10Y at 2.27% and 30Y at 2.54%
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Term premiums—yield left after returns from rolling T-bills—start the year positive across maturities for the first time in 5Y
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
US rates look wide to Swiss, Japan, German but fair to UK
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
LIQUIDITY
Steady liquidity lately in USTs, but a little erosion in Bunds
Note: The index reflects the average difference in yield between US Treasury issues with a 1-year or longer maturity and the intra-day Bloomberg relative value curve fitter. In liquid markets, deviations go away quickly, and index values are low. In illiquid markets, deviations persist, and index values are high.
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC.
VOLATILITY
Rate vol (MOVE) finishes the year near multi-year lows, equity vol (VIX) off its lows
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
SPREADS
Nominal 30Y and 15Y MBS spreads hold in a modest range
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
OAS on 30Y and 15Y MBS diverge
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Mortgage purchase and refi volume remain low
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Credit OAS stays tight to MBS
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
‘AAA’ CMBS LCFs still trade inside IG 10Y CDS, now 16 bp tighter
Source: Bloomberg, S&P/LSTA, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
IG, EM and HY all weaken slightly to close the year
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Leveraged loans rally to close the year with the average loan on Mon at $97.63 and the 100 largest loans at $98.99
Source: Bloomberg, S&P/LSTA, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
ENERGY
Oil rallies to end Dec and open Jan with West Texas Intermediate closing Mon at $73.56 and Brent crude at $76.30
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Natural gas futures trend higher with some volatility around the end of the year
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
EQUITIES
The equity yield premium—the S&P 500 1Y earnings yield spread to the 10Y Treasury—closes Mon at an extraordinary -8 bp
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
Higher rates leave financial conditions locally tight from the Dec FOMC and into Jan
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
FLOWS
The Fed SOMA closes Jan 1 at $6.41T, down in the prior four weeks by $41B or 0.63%
Source: Bloomberg, H.4, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Bank assets rise in the four weeks ending Dec 25 by $86B (0.37%) with liabilities up $59B (0.28%)
Source: Bloomberg, H.8 SA, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Money fund post another record to close Dec 25 at $6.81T
Source: Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
Fixed income funds and ETFs add $44B of AUM in the four weeks ending Dec 18 despite a mediocre quarter of returns with equity up $13B
Source: ICI, Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
A surge in Treasury holdings leaves primary dealer balance sheets through Dec 25 at $539B, the highest in 5Y
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Santander US Capital Markets LLC
This material is intended only for institutional investors and does not carry all of the independence and disclosure standards of retail debt research reports. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This message, including any attachments or links contained herein, is subject to important disclaimers, conditions, and disclosures regarding Electronic Communications, which you can find at https://portfolio-strategy.apsec.com/sancap-disclaimers-and-disclosures.
Important Disclaimers
Copyright © 2025 Santander US Capital Markets LLC and its affiliates (“SCM”). All rights reserved. SCM is a member of FINRA and SIPC. This material is intended for limited distribution to institutions only and is not publicly available. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.
In making this material available, SCM (i) is not providing any advice to the recipient, including, without limitation, any advice as to investment, legal, accounting, tax and financial matters, (ii) is not acting as an advisor or fiduciary in respect of the recipient, (iii) is not making any predictions or projections and (iv) intends that any recipient to which SCM has provided this material is an “institutional investor” (as defined under applicable law and regulation, including FINRA Rule 4512 and that this material will not be disseminated, in whole or part, to any third party by the recipient.
The author of this material is an economist, desk strategist or trader. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM or any of its affiliates may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This material (i) has been prepared for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related investments or other financial instruments, (ii) is neither research, a “research report” as commonly understood under the securities laws and regulations promulgated thereunder nor the product of a research department, (iii) or parts thereof may have been obtained from various sources, the reliability of which has not been verified and cannot be guaranteed by SCM, (iv) should not be reproduced or disclosed to any other person, without SCM’s prior consent and (v) is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which its distribution would be prohibited.
In connection with this material, SCM (i) makes no representation or warranties as to the appropriateness or reliance for use in any transaction or as to the permissibility or legality of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction, (ii) believes the information in this material to be reliable, has not independently verified such information and makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy or completeness of such information, (iii) accepts no responsibility or liability as to any reliance placed, or investment decision made, on the basis of such information by the recipient and (iv) does not undertake, and disclaims any duty to undertake, to update or to revise the information contained in this material.
Unless otherwise stated, the views, opinions, forecasts, valuations, or estimates contained in this material are those solely of the author, as of the date of publication of this material, and are subject to change without notice. The recipient of this material should make an independent evaluation of this information and make such other investigations as the recipient considers necessary (including obtaining independent financial advice), before transacting in any financial market or instrument discussed in or related to this material.
Important disclaimers for clients in the EU and UK
This publication has been prepared by Trading Desk Strategists within the Sales and Trading functions of Santander US Capital Markets LLC (“SanCap”), the US registered broker-dealer of Santander Corporate & Investment Banking. This communication is distributed in the EEA by Banco Santander S.A., a credit institution registered in Spain and authorised and regulated by the Bank of Spain and the CNMV. Any EEA recipient of this communication that would like to affect any transaction in any security or issuer discussed herein should do so with Banco Santander S.A. or any of its affiliates (together “Santander”). This communication has been distributed in the UK by Banco Santander, S.A.’s London branch, authorised by the Bank of Spain and subject to regulatory oversight on certain matters by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).
The publication is intended for exclusive use for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by MiFID II and is not intended for use by retail customers or for any persons or entities in any jurisdictions or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This material is not a product of Santander´s Research Team and does not constitute independent investment research. This is a marketing communication and may contain ¨investment recommendations¨ as defined by the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014 ("MAR"). This publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The author, date and time of the production of this publication are as indicated herein.
This publication does not constitute investment advice and may not be relied upon to form an investment decision, nor should it be construed as any offer to sell or issue or invitation to purchase, acquire or subscribe for any instruments referred herein. The publication has been prepared in good faith and based on information Santander considers reliable as of the date of publication, but Santander does not guarantee or represent, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. All estimates, forecasts and opinions are current as at the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. Unless otherwise indicated, Santander does not intend to update this publication. The views and commentary in this publication may not be objective or independent of the interests of the Trading and Sales functions of Santander, who may be active participants in the markets, investments or strategies referred to herein and/or may receive compensation from investment banking and non-investment banking services from entities mentioned herein. Santander may trade as principal, make a market or hold positions in instruments (or related derivatives) and/or hold financial interest in entities discussed herein. Santander may provide market commentary or trading strategies to other clients or engage in transactions which may differ from views expressed herein. Santander may have acted upon the contents of this publication prior to you having received it.
This publication is intended for the exclusive use of the recipient and must not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without Santander’s consent. The recipient agrees to keep confidential at all times information contained herein.