The Long and Short
Still comfortable with KEY and MTB despite challenges
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.
Both KeyCorp (KEY: Baa2/BBB/BBB+) and M&T Bank (MTB: Baa1/BBB+/A) reported fourth-quarter earnings and provided 2024 guidance that reflects the headwinds confronting mid-sized regional lenders. Despite these ongoing challenges, investors still appear properly compensated for risk in both names as spreads continue to offer compelling valuation relative to the peer group, as well as broader investment grade corporate debt.
The more generous spreads available within each respective debt capital structure appear to be the intermediate subordinated bank notes issued out of KeyBank (rated Baa2/BBB/BBB), as well as the senior holding company debt issued out of M&T (Exhibit 2). The KEY sub notes are trading in-line with low-BBB rated consumer lender Ally Financial (ALLY: Baa3/BBB-/BBB-), while the MTB seniors trade in a comparable range to card lenders Capital One (COF: Baa1/BBB/A-) and Discover (DFS: Baa2/BBB-/BBB+), as well as the financial services platform of Synchrony (SYF: BBB-/BBB-). The risk profiles of the traditional, regional lenders offer more stability than these similarly valued peers. Furthermore, both names are still trading at meaningful discounts to the larger, super-regional names that will be under more pressure to issue debt due to regulatory requirements throughout 2024.
Exhibit 1: IG intermediate regional bank paper
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/TRACE G-spread indications
Exhibit 2: KeyCorp and M&T Bank debt issues outstanding
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/TRACE pricing indications only
KEY fourth-quarter EPS from continuing operations fell 92% to $0.03 versus a consensus estimate of $0.22, while top-line revenue of $1.54 billion met with expectations. As other peers have been reporting, KEY was forced to take a $190 million charge to help replenish the FDIC’s bailout capabilities following the intervention provided to Silicon Valley last year. On an adjusted basis, KEY reported EPS of $0.25, which actually topped the $0.22 estimate.
The item that appeared to gain the most focus from investors was management’s forecast for net interest income to be down between -2% and -5% for full-year 2024, which compared with a consensus estimate closer to +1%. Higher deposit costs coupled with weaker loan demand have characterized the fallout for regional lenders of the Fed’s attempt to combat inflation over the past year. KEY’s average loans were down 3% on both a year-over-year and sequential basis, while average deposits were flat but increased 3% on a period-end basis.
Net interest margin (NIM) closed out the year at 2.07%, which remains weak relative to peers. The bank improved its Tier 1 Common equity ratio to 10.0% from 9.8% in the prior quarter and 9.1% the year before. This appears to reflect a degree of active management of risk-weighted assets on the part of management. The provision for credit losses at $102 million was in-line with expectations and reflective of a stable credit environment for lenders. KEY also provided an update on their CRE exposure, highlighting that office comprises just 0.7% of total loans (versus peer median >3%) and extremely low delinquencies across those at-risk categories.
MTB provided a more stable outlook than KEY, which is reflective of the bank’s overall lower-risk profile. Guidance for net interest income was in the $6.7 to 6.8 billion range, which was a little closer to expectations than KEY. Management also sees net interest margins remaining in the ~3.5% range as well, which is a considerable step up. Fourth-quarter EPS fell 37% to $2.74 or $482 million, as operating EPS of $2.81 fell short of the $3.54 estimate with special fees to the FDIC totaling a comparable $197 million. Adjusted EPS was $3.62 topping the consensus forecast. Net interest income of $1.72 billion met expectations.
Average deposits grew $2 billion or 1% sequentially to $164.7 billion and were up modestly from the year ago period. Meanwhile, average loans were relatively flat sequentially at $132.8 billion in the fourth quarter, though C&I and consumer loans grew while CRE contracted. Management’s expectations for 2024 are for both to remain in a very similar range throughout the year, with a focus on growing customer deposits and reducing brokered. Given MTB’s superior geographic footprint and overall posture, it is easy to see why KEY continues to trade at a significant discount, but again both continue to compensate investors for the risk commensurate with each credit, respectively.
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