The Long and Short
April brings only showers for IG
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors.
The investment grade corporate bond index delivered one of its worst monthly performances on record in April, as rising rates and a sharp widening in credit contributed to a staggering negative 5.47% total return. Investment grade corporate bond spreads widened by 23 bp leading to a -1.81% excess return over Treasury debt for the month. The index OAS closed at 135 bp – the widest level since September of 2020. On a CDX basis, the IG market is at the worst levels recorded since the earliest recovery from the pandemic, in June of the same year.
The relative value view on technology shifts to neutral from undervalued this month, as rate hikes will likely continue causing extreme volatility for tech stocks and putting pressure on spreads. We are not moving to an overvalued view, as balance sheets remain largely in good shape. The two graphics below provide a summary of how APS expects sectors within the IG Index to perform for the next several months on an excess return basis (total return net of commensurate UST return). These suggestions serve as a proxy for how we recommend that portfolio managers should position their holdings relative to the broad IG corporate bond market.
Exhibit 1 and 2. APS Sector Recommendations for May 2022
Source: Amherst Pierpont, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index
Color = recommendation: Green – undervalued, Red – overvalued, Yellow – neutral
Size = Market Value within the IG Index
Source: Amherst Pierpont, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index
It was extremely difficult to find winners amidst the April selloff in credit. Investors sought out the safety of the highest rated credits within the Index, or at least that’s where credits were less impacted by the move wider in spreads. By sector, the least bad performances were delivered by finance companies (-1.08 excess return)—aided by the recovery in aircraft lessors AER and AL—REITs (-1.29%), brokers/asset managers (-1.47%), consumer cyclical (-1.51%) and banking (-1.53%). The single worst performance in the index was delivered by the communications sector (-2.58%) as longer durations were hit hardest and recent new issue in the segment may have weighed heavily on secondaries. Other bottom performers included transportation (-2.28%), consumer non-cyclical (-2.01%), energy (-1.93%) and technology (-1.90%).
The investment grade new issue calendar moderately exceeded expectations during April, even as several deals were delayed or shelved during highly turbulent sessions toward the close of the month. In total the IG new issue market produced $113.5 billion in total volume on estimates in the $95 to 100 billion range for the month. It was a modest year-over-year decline in volume, and year-to-date issuance now stands almost perfectly flat with the first four months of calendar 2021. There were several jumbo debt deals throughout April including double-digit launches from Amazon ($12.75 billion) and Bank of America ($10.75 billion). The high yield market added just $11.8 billion in additional corporate volume and continues to operate in limited capacity amidst heightened concerns on both rates and credit. May traditionally represents a busy month for the primary calendar, as issuers typically seek to issue ahead of the slower summer months. Estimates heading into the month are for $125 to 150 billion in total volume.
Exhibit 3. Supply Recap
Source: Bloomberg LP
Exhibit 4. Communications and Transports are hit hardest in April credit selloff
Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
Exhibit 5. Investors continue to favor higher rated credits in selloff
Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
Exhibit 6. Longer dated paper hit hardest in selloff
Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
Exhibit 7. A mixed bag of individual performers, KSS and ACC spike on takeover plans
Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
This material is intended only for institutional investors and does not carry all of the independence and disclosure standards of retail debt research reports. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This message, including any attachments or links contained herein, is subject to important disclaimers, conditions, and disclosures regarding Electronic Communications, which you can find at https://portfolio-strategy.apsec.com/sancap-disclaimers-and-disclosures.
Important Disclaimers
Copyright © 2023 Santander US Capital Markets LLC and its affiliates (“SCM”). All rights reserved. SCM is a member of FINRA and SIPC. This material is intended for limited distribution to institutions only and is not publicly available. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.
In making this material available, SCM (i) is not providing any advice to the recipient, including, without limitation, any advice as to investment, legal, accounting, tax and financial matters, (ii) is not acting as an advisor or fiduciary in respect of the recipient, (iii) is not making any predictions or projections and (iv) intends that any recipient to which SCM has provided this material is an “institutional investor” (as defined under applicable law and regulation, including FINRA Rule 4512 and that this material will not be disseminated, in whole or part, to any third party by the recipient.
The author of this material is an economist, desk strategist or trader. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM or any of its affiliates may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This material (i) has been prepared for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related investments or other financial instruments, (ii) is neither research, a “research report” as commonly understood under the securities laws and regulations promulgated thereunder nor the product of a research department, (iii) or parts thereof may have been obtained from various sources, the reliability of which has not been verified and cannot be guaranteed by SCM, (iv) should not be reproduced or disclosed to any other person, without SCM’s prior consent and (v) is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which its distribution would be prohibited.
In connection with this material, SCM (i) makes no representation or warranties as to the appropriateness or reliance for use in any transaction or as to the permissibility or legality of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction, (ii) believes the information in this material to be reliable, has not independently verified such information and makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy or completeness of such information, (iii) accepts no responsibility or liability as to any reliance placed, or investment decision made, on the basis of such information by the recipient and (iv) does not undertake, and disclaims any duty to undertake, to update or to revise the information contained in this material.
Unless otherwise stated, the views, opinions, forecasts, valuations, or estimates contained in this material are those solely of the author, as of the date of publication of this material, and are subject to change without notice. The recipient of this material should make an independent evaluation of this information and make such other investigations as the recipient considers necessary (including obtaining independent financial advice), before transacting in any financial market or instrument discussed in or related to this material.
