Uncategorized
Trading volume rises toward a 2020 peak
admin | October 30, 2020
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.
MBS trading volume has grown steadily since the beginning of April and is approaching the peak levels of the year. The Fed, heavy mortgage refinancing and a pandemic boost in housing turnover from people looking to improve their work-from-home setting have all contributed. Net supply has exceeded the Fed’s buying over the past three months, but private investors have proven very willing to absorb the excess.
TBA trading is approaching levels last seen in March
TBA trading volume has steadily increased since the end of May (Exhibit 1). Volumes spiked in mid-March when the Fed began buying MBS for QE4, with Fed volume so heavy and consistent that it dampened the typical seasonality in TBA trading. Activity slowly returned to pre-pandemic levels as the Fed reduced the MBS it was adding to $40 billion a month, along with reinvesting portfolio runoff. The Fed now owns $2 trillion in MBS or 27% of outstanding supply. But trading has steadily increased since the end of May and is nearing March levels.
Exhibit 1: TBA trading volumes are approaching the high levels from March
The dark blue line is weekly trading volume, the light blue is fit using LOESS to smooth seasonal variation.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Amherst Pierpont Securities
Mortgage originators routinely hedge originations with TBA contracts and roll those contracts to manage pipeline interest rate risk, so heavy origination can contribute to increased TBA and roll trading. Origination volumes have been extremely high in 2020 as many homeowners have refinanced into record low mortgage rates and many others have moved into larger homes that offer better work-from-home environments. Gross MBS issuance has already exceeded the previous high-level set in 2003 with three more months left in the year. Net issuance has averaged $33 billion a month this year and has averaged $52 billion per month for the last 3 months, exceeding the Fed’s net buying. The increase in trading activity has increased even faster since late October, perhaps as investors position for the upcoming election.
Dollar roll usage has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels
Dollar roll trading has also increased steadily over the past few months, recovering to levels set in late January and February (Exhibit 2). The Fed does not roll their positions, so the increase in activity comes from private investors. The roll has traded special in many coupons over the past few months, and investors that can roll their positions often chose to invest in TBA and roll rather than buy specified pools.
Exhibit 2: Dollar roll trading volumes are back to February’s levels
The dark blue line is weekly trading volume, the light blue is fit using LOESS to smooth seasonal variation.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Amherst Pierpont Securities
Roll activity had spiked in late January and into February but slowed when the Fed began buying MBS for QE4. Roll trading remained suppressed until June but started recovering when the Fed slowed their pace of MBS purchasing. Heavy MBS supply and, over the last three months, a net increase in the amount of MBS held by private investors has contributed to heavier rolling. Activity increased despite weakening in the 2.5% and 3.0% rolls.
This material is intended only for institutional investors and does not carry all of the independence and disclosure standards of retail debt research reports. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This message, including any attachments or links contained herein, is subject to important disclaimers, conditions, and disclosures regarding Electronic Communications, which you can find at https://portfolio-strategy.apsec.com/sancap-disclaimers-and-disclosures.
Important Disclaimers
Copyright © 2024 Santander US Capital Markets LLC and its affiliates (“SCM”). All rights reserved. SCM is a member of FINRA and SIPC. This material is intended for limited distribution to institutions only and is not publicly available. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.
In making this material available, SCM (i) is not providing any advice to the recipient, including, without limitation, any advice as to investment, legal, accounting, tax and financial matters, (ii) is not acting as an advisor or fiduciary in respect of the recipient, (iii) is not making any predictions or projections and (iv) intends that any recipient to which SCM has provided this material is an “institutional investor” (as defined under applicable law and regulation, including FINRA Rule 4512 and that this material will not be disseminated, in whole or part, to any third party by the recipient.
The author of this material is an economist, desk strategist or trader. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM or any of its affiliates may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.
This material (i) has been prepared for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related investments or other financial instruments, (ii) is neither research, a “research report” as commonly understood under the securities laws and regulations promulgated thereunder nor the product of a research department, (iii) or parts thereof may have been obtained from various sources, the reliability of which has not been verified and cannot be guaranteed by SCM, (iv) should not be reproduced or disclosed to any other person, without SCM’s prior consent and (v) is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which its distribution would be prohibited.
In connection with this material, SCM (i) makes no representation or warranties as to the appropriateness or reliance for use in any transaction or as to the permissibility or legality of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction, (ii) believes the information in this material to be reliable, has not independently verified such information and makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy or completeness of such information, (iii) accepts no responsibility or liability as to any reliance placed, or investment decision made, on the basis of such information by the recipient and (iv) does not undertake, and disclaims any duty to undertake, to update or to revise the information contained in this material.
Unless otherwise stated, the views, opinions, forecasts, valuations, or estimates contained in this material are those solely of the author, as of the date of publication of this material, and are subject to change without notice. The recipient of this material should make an independent evaluation of this information and make such other investigations as the recipient considers necessary (including obtaining independent financial advice), before transacting in any financial market or instrument discussed in or related to this material.
Important disclaimers for clients in the EU and UK
This publication has been prepared by Trading Desk Strategists within the Sales and Trading functions of Santander US Capital Markets LLC (“SanCap”), the US registered broker-dealer of Santander Corporate & Investment Banking. This communication is distributed in the EEA by Banco Santander S.A., a credit institution registered in Spain and authorised and regulated by the Bank of Spain and the CNMV. Any EEA recipient of this communication that would like to affect any transaction in any security or issuer discussed herein should do so with Banco Santander S.A. or any of its affiliates (together “Santander”). This communication has been distributed in the UK by Banco Santander, S.A.’s London branch, authorised by the Bank of Spain and subject to regulatory oversight on certain matters by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).
The publication is intended for exclusive use for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by MiFID II and is not intended for use by retail customers or for any persons or entities in any jurisdictions or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This material is not a product of Santander´s Research Team and does not constitute independent investment research. This is a marketing communication and may contain ¨investment recommendations¨ as defined by the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014 ("MAR"). This publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The author, date and time of the production of this publication are as indicated herein.
This publication does not constitute investment advice and may not be relied upon to form an investment decision, nor should it be construed as any offer to sell or issue or invitation to purchase, acquire or subscribe for any instruments referred herein. The publication has been prepared in good faith and based on information Santander considers reliable as of the date of publication, but Santander does not guarantee or represent, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. All estimates, forecasts and opinions are current as at the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. Unless otherwise indicated, Santander does not intend to update this publication. The views and commentary in this publication may not be objective or independent of the interests of the Trading and Sales functions of Santander, who may be active participants in the markets, investments or strategies referred to herein and/or may receive compensation from investment banking and non-investment banking services from entities mentioned herein. Santander may trade as principal, make a market or hold positions in instruments (or related derivatives) and/or hold financial interest in entities discussed herein. Santander may provide market commentary or trading strategies to other clients or engage in transactions which may differ from views expressed herein. Santander may have acted upon the contents of this publication prior to you having received it.
This publication is intended for the exclusive use of the recipient and must not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without Santander’s consent. The recipient agrees to keep confidential at all times information contained herein.
