Economy: Tracking changes in GDP growth through COVID-19
admin | March 20, 2020
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The New York Fed’s Nowcasting report for US GDP growth has already fallen to 1.5% for Q120 and 0.1% for Q220. The weekly Nowcasting report is not based on estimates of future data, but is a projection based solely on incoming data as it is released. Economist forecasts which incorporate the estimated impact of COVID-19 related shutdowns are obviously much bleaker, with APS economist Stephen Stanley projecting scenarios that include zero growth in Q1 and -11% growth in Q2 before strongly rebounding to 15% in Q3. As the macroeconomic data begins to deteriorate the Nowcasting forecast will evolve and likely plunge as well, providing an interesting track of the GDP forecast minus the speculative noise. The NYFed Nowcasting report is here and Stephen Stanley’s report is here. Sources: NYFed, APS
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