Uncategorized

Looking to Brazil and commodities as EM bellwethers

| August 24, 2018

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.

The relatively large movements in emerging markets currencies this year are attracting significant attention. Of the universe of 31 expanded major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, nine of the weakest 10 are EM led by the 38.6% drop in the Argentine Peso and the 37.4% slump in the Turkish Lira. While it is too early to take these movements as signs of broader EM risk, developments in Brazil and the direction of commodity prices are good bellwethers.

Exhibit 1: Year-to-date performance of major currencies against the US dollar

Source: Bloomberg

This year has seen significant strength in the US dollar, with only three of the 31 currencies tracked posting gains against the dollar (Exhibit 1). Ironically, the Mexican Peso has performed well on hopes for an early adoption of a US-Mexico trade agreement to replace NAFTA. In an environment of diverging monetary policies, the steady policy normalization by the Fed has contributed to a steady dollar appreciation that appears to have further momentum in the months ahead.

What is not clear, however, is whether the general dollar appreciation and Fed tightening is creating conditions consistent with an EM crisis, a development that could interfere with US and global growth to a degree sufficient to limit further Fed tightening. To get a fairer assessment of that likelihood, it seems better to assess currency movements over a longer period. Indeed, there has been significant variation in dollar movements since the 2016 Presidential election, with initial, sharp dollar gains followed by steady declines in 2017. EM currency performance against the dollar since October 2016 offers a better benchmark.

Looked at over this longer period, the shifts in EM currencies still appear to be more country specific than generic. To be sure, the Turkish and Argentinian currencies remain, by far, the weakest, having fallen by almost 50% since the end of October 2016 (Exhibit 2). But there are also EM currencies such as the Czech Koruna and the Polish zloty at the top of the performance rankings with Asian currencies including the Taiwan New Dollar, Korean won and the Malaysian Ringgit among the top 10. That suggests EM currencies more broadly defined are not showing significant stress.

Exhibit 2: Year-to-date performance of smaller currencies against the US dollar

Source: Bloomberg

For now it appears that stress in EM currencies, a good reflection of market concern about their economies, is not sufficient to become a meaningful factor in Fed policy deliberations. However, there are at least two developments that bear close scrutiny during the months ahead.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Harvard professor Carmen Reinhart placed her focus squarely on Brazil, suggesting that additional turmoil in the currency and financial markets could be a bell-weather for broader risk in the emerging market world.  With a Presidential election in October, the uncertainty in Brazil is likely to ramp up during the weeks ahead.

Then there are commodity prices. Two months ago, elevated level of commodity prices added some comfort with EM, with the broad-based CRB Commodity Spot Price Index –including foodstuff, energy, precious metal and industrial products—at a four-and-a half-year high (Exhibit 3). However, at least partly driven by the significant rebound in the US dollar, the CRB ALL-Commodity Spot Price Index has fallen by more than 8% from the mid-June highs, a setback that could reverberate through the economic fundamentals for many EM countries. For now, that setback in prices appears manageable, but clearly would bring broader risks if it persists during the months ahead. Rather than focusing on the attention-grabbing headlines on movements in currencies like the Turkish Lira and Argentine Peso, investors and Fed watchers would likely be better served to monitor developments in commodity prices and Brazil.

Exhibit 3: Commodity prices have dropped sharply since June

Source: Bloomberg, CRB

admin
jkillian@apsec.com
john.killian@santander.us 1 (646) 776-7714

This material is intended only for institutional investors and does not carry all of the independence and disclosure standards of retail debt research reports. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.

This message, including any attachments or links contained herein, is subject to important disclaimers, conditions, and disclosures regarding Electronic Communications, which you can find at https://portfolio-strategy.apsec.com/sancap-disclaimers-and-disclosures.

Important Disclaimers

Copyright © 2024 Santander US Capital Markets LLC and its affiliates (“SCM”). All rights reserved. SCM is a member of FINRA and SIPC. This material is intended for limited distribution to institutions only and is not publicly available. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.

In making this material available, SCM (i) is not providing any advice to the recipient, including, without limitation, any advice as to investment, legal, accounting, tax and financial matters, (ii) is not acting as an advisor or fiduciary in respect of the recipient, (iii) is not making any predictions or projections and (iv) intends that any recipient to which SCM has provided this material is an “institutional investor” (as defined under applicable law and regulation, including FINRA Rule 4512 and that this material will not be disseminated, in whole or part, to any third party by the recipient.

The author of this material is an economist, desk strategist or trader. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM or any of its affiliates may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.

This material (i) has been prepared for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related investments or other financial instruments, (ii) is neither research, a “research report” as commonly understood under the securities laws and regulations promulgated thereunder nor the product of a research department, (iii) or parts thereof may have been obtained from various sources, the reliability of which has not been verified and cannot be guaranteed by SCM, (iv) should not be reproduced or disclosed to any other person, without SCM’s prior consent and (v) is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which its distribution would be prohibited.

In connection with this material, SCM (i) makes no representation or warranties as to the appropriateness or reliance for use in any transaction or as to the permissibility or legality of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction, (ii) believes the information in this material to be reliable, has not independently verified such information and makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy or completeness of such information, (iii) accepts no responsibility or liability as to any reliance placed, or investment decision made, on the basis of such information by the recipient and (iv) does not undertake, and disclaims any duty to undertake, to update or to revise the information contained in this material.

Unless otherwise stated, the views, opinions, forecasts, valuations, or estimates contained in this material are those solely of the author, as of the date of publication of this material, and are subject to change without notice. The recipient of this material should make an independent evaluation of this information and make such other investigations as the recipient considers necessary (including obtaining independent financial advice), before transacting in any financial market or instrument discussed in or related to this material.

Important disclaimers for clients in the EU and UK

This publication has been prepared by Trading Desk Strategists within the Sales and Trading functions of Santander US Capital Markets LLC (“SanCap”), the US registered broker-dealer of Santander Corporate & Investment Banking. This communication is distributed in the EEA by Banco Santander S.A., a credit institution registered in Spain and authorised and regulated by the Bank of Spain and the CNMV. Any EEA recipient of this communication that would like to affect any transaction in any security or issuer discussed herein should do so with Banco Santander S.A. or any of its affiliates (together “Santander”). This communication has been distributed in the UK by Banco Santander, S.A.’s London branch, authorised by the Bank of Spain and subject to regulatory oversight on certain matters by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).

The publication is intended for exclusive use for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by MiFID II and is not intended for use by retail customers or for any persons or entities in any jurisdictions or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

This material is not a product of Santander´s Research Team and does not constitute independent investment research. This is a marketing communication and may contain ¨investment recommendations¨ as defined by the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014 ("MAR"). This publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The author, date and time of the production of this publication are as indicated herein.

This publication does not constitute investment advice and may not be relied upon to form an investment decision, nor should it be construed as any offer to sell or issue or invitation to purchase, acquire or subscribe for any instruments referred herein. The publication has been prepared in good faith and based on information Santander considers reliable as of the date of publication, but Santander does not guarantee or represent, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. All estimates, forecasts and opinions are current as at the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. Unless otherwise indicated, Santander does not intend to update this publication. The views and commentary in this publication may not be objective or independent of the interests of the Trading and Sales functions of Santander, who may be active participants in the markets, investments or strategies referred to herein and/or may receive compensation from investment banking and non-investment banking services from entities mentioned herein. Santander may trade as principal, make a market or hold positions in instruments (or related derivatives) and/or hold financial interest in entities discussed herein. Santander may provide market commentary or trading strategies to other clients or engage in transactions which may differ from views expressed herein. Santander may have acted upon the contents of this publication prior to you having received it.

This publication is intended for the exclusive use of the recipient and must not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without Santander’s consent. The recipient agrees to keep confidential at all times information contained herein.

The Library

Search Articles