The Long and Short

Corporate Prospector: Relative value, returns, spreads, flows and more

| December 4, 2024

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.

Banks, REITs, brokers and capital goods still look like better relative value than energy, transportation and consumer non-cyclicals even though spreads across most sectors trade at their tightest levels in years. Meanwhile, appetite for yield keeps flattening the spread curve from ‘BBB’ to ‘A’, and from ‘A’ to ‘AA’. Despite it all, mutual funds see some of their biggest inflows of the year.

The highlights:

  • Relative value: No changes to sector views for Dec
  • Returns: A rebound in Nov with lower rates, more excess return with tighter spreads
  • Spreads: Historic tights post-election before backing off late in Nov
  • Flow of funds: Biggest 1-week fund inflow in Nov of the past 52
  • Issuance: Nov new issue edges out estimates to land just below $100B
  • Volatility: VIX, MOVE spike around elections but stabilize later in Nov
  • Credit trends: Upgrades continue to outpace downgrades 3:1 in 4Q24

RELATIVE VALUE

No changes to sector weighting views according to percentile ranking analytic by sector

Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index. Color = recommendation: Green – stronger relative value, Red – weaker relative value, Yellow – neutral relative value. Size = Market Value within the IG Index

Month-end percentile ranking of current OAS versus five-year historical data by sector

Note: the blue bars represent percentile rank (LHS), the orange bars represent OAS (RHS).
Source: Bloomberg corporate bond indices, Santander US Capital Markets

TRAILING RETURNS

Total return recovers with rally in UST; index continues consistent positive excess return with tighter spreads

Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index

Energy, communications and fincos outperformed in Nov, while consumer, banking, basics and cap goods underperformed

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index

Classic “risk-on” credit posture resumed in Nov

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index

Long-end of the curve rallied in Nov

Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index

SPREADS

Spreads tested historic tights post-election before backing off later in the month

Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index, CDX

IG spreads dipped further below a full standard deviation of the mean

Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index

“Risk-on” trade pushed ‘BBB’ even tighter relative to ‘A’

Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index

Available pick in ‘A’ spreads vs ‘AA’ lingers below mean

Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index

FLOW OF FUNDS

Biggest single weekly mutual fund inflow of the past 52 weeks in Nov

Source: Bloomberg LP, Refinitiv/Lipper weekly flow data

ISSUANCE

Nov new issue volume edges out estimates just below $100 billion

Source: Bloomberg LP, LEAG Tables, some monthly rounding error applies

VOLATILITY

VIX and MOVE spike around elections but settle in throughout the month

Source: Bloomberg LP, Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, ICE BofA MOVE Index

CREDIT TRENDS

Upgrades continue to outpace downgrades 3:1 in 4Q24

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Bloomberg LP

Dan Bruzzo, CFA
dan.bruzzo@santander.us
1 (646) 776-7749

This material is intended only for institutional investors and does not carry all of the independence and disclosure standards of retail debt research reports. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.

This message, including any attachments or links contained herein, is subject to important disclaimers, conditions, and disclosures regarding Electronic Communications, which you can find at https://portfolio-strategy.apsec.com/sancap-disclaimers-and-disclosures.

Important Disclaimers

Copyright © 2025 Santander US Capital Markets LLC and its affiliates (“SCM”). All rights reserved. SCM is a member of FINRA and SIPC. This material is intended for limited distribution to institutions only and is not publicly available. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.

In making this material available, SCM (i) is not providing any advice to the recipient, including, without limitation, any advice as to investment, legal, accounting, tax and financial matters, (ii) is not acting as an advisor or fiduciary in respect of the recipient, (iii) is not making any predictions or projections and (iv) intends that any recipient to which SCM has provided this material is an “institutional investor” (as defined under applicable law and regulation, including FINRA Rule 4512 and that this material will not be disseminated, in whole or part, to any third party by the recipient.

The author of this material is an economist, desk strategist or trader. In the preparation of this material, the author may have consulted or otherwise discussed the matters referenced herein with one or more of SCM’s trading desks, any of which may have accumulated or otherwise taken a position, long or short, in any of the financial instruments discussed in or related to this material. Further, SCM or any of its affiliates may act as a market maker or principal dealer and may have proprietary interests that differ or conflict with the recipient hereof, in connection with any financial instrument discussed in or related to this material.

This material (i) has been prepared for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related investments or other financial instruments, (ii) is neither research, a “research report” as commonly understood under the securities laws and regulations promulgated thereunder nor the product of a research department, (iii) or parts thereof may have been obtained from various sources, the reliability of which has not been verified and cannot be guaranteed by SCM, (iv) should not be reproduced or disclosed to any other person, without SCM’s prior consent and (v) is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which its distribution would be prohibited.

In connection with this material, SCM (i) makes no representation or warranties as to the appropriateness or reliance for use in any transaction or as to the permissibility or legality of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction, (ii) believes the information in this material to be reliable, has not independently verified such information and makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy or completeness of such information, (iii) accepts no responsibility or liability as to any reliance placed, or investment decision made, on the basis of such information by the recipient and (iv) does not undertake, and disclaims any duty to undertake, to update or to revise the information contained in this material.

Unless otherwise stated, the views, opinions, forecasts, valuations, or estimates contained in this material are those solely of the author, as of the date of publication of this material, and are subject to change without notice. The recipient of this material should make an independent evaluation of this information and make such other investigations as the recipient considers necessary (including obtaining independent financial advice), before transacting in any financial market or instrument discussed in or related to this material.

Important disclaimers for clients in the EU and UK

This publication has been prepared by Trading Desk Strategists within the Sales and Trading functions of Santander US Capital Markets LLC (“SanCap”), the US registered broker-dealer of Santander Corporate & Investment Banking. This communication is distributed in the EEA by Banco Santander S.A., a credit institution registered in Spain and authorised and regulated by the Bank of Spain and the CNMV. Any EEA recipient of this communication that would like to affect any transaction in any security or issuer discussed herein should do so with Banco Santander S.A. or any of its affiliates (together “Santander”). This communication has been distributed in the UK by Banco Santander, S.A.’s London branch, authorised by the Bank of Spain and subject to regulatory oversight on certain matters by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).

The publication is intended for exclusive use for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by MiFID II and is not intended for use by retail customers or for any persons or entities in any jurisdictions or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

This material is not a product of Santander´s Research Team and does not constitute independent investment research. This is a marketing communication and may contain ¨investment recommendations¨ as defined by the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014 ("MAR"). This publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The author, date and time of the production of this publication are as indicated herein.

This publication does not constitute investment advice and may not be relied upon to form an investment decision, nor should it be construed as any offer to sell or issue or invitation to purchase, acquire or subscribe for any instruments referred herein. The publication has been prepared in good faith and based on information Santander considers reliable as of the date of publication, but Santander does not guarantee or represent, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. All estimates, forecasts and opinions are current as at the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. Unless otherwise indicated, Santander does not intend to update this publication. The views and commentary in this publication may not be objective or independent of the interests of the Trading and Sales functions of Santander, who may be active participants in the markets, investments or strategies referred to herein and/or may receive compensation from investment banking and non-investment banking services from entities mentioned herein. Santander may trade as principal, make a market or hold positions in instruments (or related derivatives) and/or hold financial interest in entities discussed herein. Santander may provide market commentary or trading strategies to other clients or engage in transactions which may differ from views expressed herein. Santander may have acted upon the contents of this publication prior to you having received it.

This publication is intended for the exclusive use of the recipient and must not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without Santander’s consent. The recipient agrees to keep confidential at all times information contained herein.

The Library

Search Articles