The Long and Short
Corporate Prospector: Relative value, returns, spreads, flows and more
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. This material does not constitute research.
Banks, REITs, brokers and capital goods still look like better relative value than energy, transportation and consumer non-cyclicals even though spreads across most sectors trade at their tightest levels in years. Meanwhile, appetite for yield keeps flattening the spread curve from ‘BBB’ to ‘A’, and from ‘A’ to ‘AA’. Despite it all, mutual funds see some of their biggest inflows of the year.
The highlights:
- Relative value: No changes to sector views for Dec
- Returns: A rebound in Nov with lower rates, more excess return with tighter spreads
- Spreads: Historic tights post-election before backing off late in Nov
- Flow of funds: Biggest 1-week fund inflow in Nov of the past 52
- Issuance: Nov new issue edges out estimates to land just below $100B
- Volatility: VIX, MOVE spike around elections but stabilize later in Nov
- Credit trends: Upgrades continue to outpace downgrades 3:1 in 4Q24
RELATIVE VALUE
No changes to sector weighting views according to percentile ranking analytic by sector
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index. Color = recommendation: Green – stronger relative value, Red – weaker relative value, Yellow – neutral relative value. Size = Market Value within the IG Index
Month-end percentile ranking of current OAS versus five-year historical data by sector
Note: the blue bars represent percentile rank (LHS), the orange bars represent OAS (RHS).
Source: Bloomberg corporate bond indices, Santander US Capital Markets
TRAILING RETURNS
Total return recovers with rally in UST; index continues consistent positive excess return with tighter spreads
Source: Santander US Capital Markets LLC, Bloomberg/Barclays US Corp Index
Energy, communications and fincos outperformed in Nov, while consumer, banking, basics and cap goods underperformed
Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
Classic “risk-on” credit posture resumed in Nov
Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
Long-end of the curve rallied in Nov
Source: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp Index
SPREADS
Spreads tested historic tights post-election before backing off later in the month
Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index, CDX
IG spreads dipped further below a full standard deviation of the mean
Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index
“Risk-on” trade pushed ‘BBB’ even tighter relative to ‘A’
Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index
Available pick in ‘A’ spreads vs ‘AA’ lingers below mean
Source: Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Barclays Index
FLOW OF FUNDS
Biggest single weekly mutual fund inflow of the past 52 weeks in Nov
Source: Bloomberg LP, Refinitiv/Lipper weekly flow data
ISSUANCE
Nov new issue volume edges out estimates just below $100 billion
Source: Bloomberg LP, LEAG Tables, some monthly rounding error applies
VOLATILITY
VIX and MOVE spike around elections but settle in throughout the month
Source: Bloomberg LP, Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, ICE BofA MOVE Index
CREDIT TRENDS
Upgrades continue to outpace downgrades 3:1 in 4Q24
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Bloomberg LP
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